After spending time watching Iroman Wisconsin last year and seeing so many people struggle with the cold temperatures, I thought that I’d take a little journey through the historical weather records on race day in Madison.

I also wanted to see how the race may have been impacted by the type of weather they had. The best place that I have found to review race results and the historical results is, www.triresults.com

The TriResults site actually just put up an Ironman Wisconsin Events page that has a great listing of the historical data, including: the results listing, divisional top ten by year and Hawaii qualifiers by year.

Weather Data: taken from wunderground.com

Sept 10, 2006: Mean - 56F, Max - 59F, Min - 53F
Sept 11, 2005: Mean - 80F, Max - 91F, Min - 69F
Sept 12, 2004: Mean - 71F, Max - 85F, Min - 57F
Sept 7, 2003: Mean - 74F, Max - 89F, Min - 59F
Sept 15, 2002: Mean - 59F, Max - 71F, Min - 48F

Results Analysis:

Taking some data from the TriResults site, I wanted to see how the times changed year to year. To make things easy, primarily because the data was already put together, I took the 10th place finishing time (male 25-29) and the last Hawaii Qualifying time for each year.

I realize that those times are not a good snapshot of the field of triathletes racing on those days, not even a good snapshot of the male 25-29 year old age group, because to finish that high you are definately on the long tail of things. But the data was accessible and there may be a day I’ll have the desire to search through and find the median number in the age group so that we can see where the exact middle finisher would finish…. maybe later. Here’s what I do have:


2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
10th Place Finisher 10:25 10:50 10:37 10:32 10:21
Last Hawaii Qualifier 10:18 11:10 10:22 10:18 10:20
# of AG Participants 201 186 162 173 184

Final Thoughts:

So are there correlations that we can draw from this data? I think the one thing that becomes obvious is that the 2005 race was an outlier in terms of race performance (among the top 10 and Hawaii Qualifiers). When looking at the weather data, we also see that 2005 was the hottest year the race has been held. In 2005, the average temperature was 80F with a high of 91F. The high’s in 2004 and 2003 were both in the 80’s (2003 being 89F) but the averages were both down into the lower 70’s.

The one fact that I find interesting was that in 2006 the times were not significantly different than the times in 2004, 2003 and 2002. I guess I expected them to be primarily because we saw so many people appearing to struggle with the cold. The best explanation that I have for this is that the results that we are looking at are people that are on the course for 10 to 10.5 hours. If we were able to look at the middle of the pack (mop) and back of the pack (bop) results, we might see something different. My hypothesis is that the weather becomes more of a factor the longer your day is, but it is just a hypothesis.

The last thought that I have is that the weather will impact the way I approach the event, especially if it is going to be a very hot day. But in the end, it is a variable that is out of my control and therefore something I should be prepared for, but should not be anxious about. It appears that most years athletes do a pretty good job of adapting to the conditions.

To view some Ironman Wisconsin 2006 Race Reports that I tagged on del.icio.us go here: Ironman Wisconsin Tags